NuroPicks Paid Tier Specification (Alpha)

Status: Active policy. Revise after 30 days of verified record. Authored: 2026-04-21 by Kai, under David's direction based on 2026 sports-picks research brief. Revised: 2026-04-22 - Elite unlock shortened from 60 days to 30 days per David's call to be ready for NCAA football season launch.

Tier policy during alpha (first 30 days post-LLC)

Only two tiers are live: Free and Pro ($29.99/mo). Elite is locked until 30 days of publicly verified record exists on nuropicks.com/record with positive ROI and CLV.

This is deliberate. Research flagged that stacking Free / Pro / Elite on day 1 without a track record is the single most common tout-service anti-pattern. Starting with one paid tier forces the product to stand on the record, not on VIP upsell.

Free tier

Cost: $0 Channels unlocked:

All public channels (#welcome, #rules, #free-picks, #record, #results, #education, #community)

Entitlements:

1-2 AI picks per day posted to #free-picks (bot-published, idempotent, locked at post time)
Read-only access to #record channel (mirrors nuropicks.com/record)
Full access to education channels (#bankroll-101, #glossary, #academy)
Commands: /record, /about, /help, /glossary, /responsible-gambling, /self-exclude, /daily (rewards), /profile
Discord badge: @Verified (after reacting to rules)

Explicit non-entitlements:

No premium picks
No CLV breakdowns beyond the public aggregate
No priority alerts
No Kelly bankroll AI
No capper-marketplace follow capability

Pro tier ($29.99/mo)

Cost: $29.99/month billed via Whop + NOWPayments (crypto) + Stripe (card, once wired) Channels unlocked (in addition to Free):

#premium-picks (3-5 picks per day during active NBA/NFL slates)
#premium-record (premium-only ledger slice)
#office-hours (weekly threaded Q&A)

Entitlements:

All AI picks, not just the 1-2 daily free drop
Full SHAP explainability on every pick
CLV tracker for user-submitted bets via /bet
Priority notification channel (mentions @Pro on new picks)
Kelly sizing guidance via /bankroll
Model-confidence tier shown on every pick
Commands: all Free commands + /predict, /bankroll advanced mode, /myclv, /ev

Explicit non-entitlements:

No copy-betting (gated behind Elite once unlocked)
No VIP DM line (doesn't exist by policy; no touting)
No guaranteed returns language; this is not part of the product

Guarantee language:

NuroPicks provides AI-generated analysis and picks for entertainment purposes. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future returns. 21+ only. 1-800-GAMBLER.

Refund policy: 7-day refund from first payment if fewer than 5 premium picks have been consumed. After that, cancel the next billing cycle. No partial mid-month refunds. Cancel in two clicks from Whop dashboard.

Elite tier (LOCKED during alpha)

Will unlock on whichever comes first:

30 days of publicly verified record showing positive ROI and positive CLV across a minimum of 150 settled picks, OR
David's explicit approval after David-specified alternative milestone

Target unlock: mid-to-late May 2026, positioning Elite for NCAA football season marketing.

Target Elite design (not live yet):

Price: $79.99/mo, founding rate for first 500
Copy-betting capability (auto-follow verified cappers with DM pick delivery)
Bankroll AI (full Kelly sizing, drawdown alerts, bankroll-cap enforcement)
SMS priority alerts
Advanced academy modules
Daily CLV report

Until unlocked, Elite checkout is disabled. The /pricing page shows Elite grayed out with a "Unlocks at 30 days verified record" badge (revised 2026-04-22 per the header note above).

Blended ARPU targets

Alpha (Free + Pro only): target $29.99 ARPU on paid base
Post-alpha (Free + Pro + Elite): target blended $84 ARPU assuming 60% Pro / 30% Elite / 10% Free-converted-weekly
Annual plans offered only after Elite unlock; target 12x monthly with 20% discount

Enforcement

web/src/components/PricingSection.tsx needs an elite.locked = true flag surfaced as a disabled CTA during alpha
Bot /upgrade command: if user selects Elite, respond with lock message + date-of-next-review
Whop / NOWPayments product IDs for Elite: do not publish until unlock

Why this matters (research citations)

From the 2026 sports-picks research brief:

Premium tier before track record = top signal of "tout service not worth trusting"
60 days of timestamped picks is the minimum a sharp audience accepts
Blended ARPU matters less than retention; avoid over-extracting from alpha subs who haven't seen a full cycle of picks yet
Kill criteria include free-to-paid conversion below 1.5% after Discord UX is solid; tier sprawl hides which tier is actually converting

Review trigger

Revisit this document at the earlier of:

30 days post first published pick (publish_log first published row, per 2026-04-22 unlock revision), or
300 settled picks in the immutable record, or
Any two kill-criteria firing for 30 consecutive days (then pivot review, not tier review)