2026 Dynasty Rookie Draft - Operational Playbook

Launch date: Sunday, May 10, 2026 (2 weeks post NFL-Draft) Run-through: June 30, 2026 Owner: David Why now: First off-season engagement event for NuroPicks Fantasy dynasty users. Wave 4 research confirmed this is the moment dynasty users pay attention - between NFL Draft weekend (Apr 24–26) and the first rookie draft wave (~May 8–12).

1. Timeline

2. Surfaces shipped

• DB migration: db/migrations/0016-rookie-drafts.sql
• Rookie seeder: workers/nfl_data/seed_rookies_2026.py (daily Apr 26 – May 3, then weekly)
• Ranking service: src/services/ai/rookie-rankings.ts (nightly cron 0 5 * * * UTC)
• AI auto-pick: src/services/ai/rookie-draft-ai.ts
• AI content drafter: src/services/ai/rookie-ai-drafter.ts (weekly, publishes to blog)
• Public hub: web/src/app/fantasy/rookie-draft/page.tsx
• Draft room: web/src/app/fantasy/rookie-draft/[draftId]/page.tsx
• Mock draft: web/src/app/fantasy/rookie-draft/mock/page.tsx
• Rankings table: web/src/components/fantasy/RookieRankings.tsx
• Discord commands: src/bot/commands/fantasy/fantasy-rookie-draft.js
• Blog post: blog/2026-nfl-draft-fantasy-grades.md

3. Ranking sources

Composite rank blends four sources with the following weights:

Any source that fails to return data is skipped and the remaining weights are re-normalized. Rankings are snapshotted into rookie_rankings_cache nightly.

4. AI auto-pick priority

The live room and the mock tool use the same pickRookie() stack:

1. Targets - if any gsis_id on the team's target list is still on the board, take highest-ranked target.
2. Needs - positional scarcity on the team's dynasty roster (QB: 1 starter, RB: 4, WR: 5, TE: 2; superflex → QB: 2).
3. Value + rank - best composite rank, weighted up when the gap to the next 3 picks is >5.
4. Avoid list - never pick a player explicitly blocked, even as BPA.

5. Marketing timing

Hype window (Apr 24 – May 2)

• Live NFL-Draft reactions in the Discord.
• X: landing-spot grades per rookie, real-time.
• Email: "2026 rookie class ranked - NuroPicks" → /fantasy/rookie-draft.

Conversion window (May 3 – May 10)

• Mock draft tool goes public on May 3. Every mock pick drops a cookie so we can bring users back.
• Discord DM series to dynasty-league commissioners: "Host your rookie draft here - here's why."
• X thread: the AI's own rookie mock draft (generated via rookie-ai-drafter.ts). One post per round.

Run window (May 10 – Jun 30)

• Feature one hosted draft per week in the Discord.
• Publish an AI-drafted "how this class is landing in real dynasty drafts" post every Tuesday.
• Track: count of rookie_drafts rows, attach-rate to existing fantasy leagues, pick trades executed.

6. Integration notes

• The live draft room reuses the Socket.IO service in services/draft-room. We pass rookie_only=true on the join payload; the service filters the player universe to fantasy_players.is_rookie_2026 = TRUE.
• Rookie drafts can be standalone (league_id = NULL, public mock) or attached to an existing fantasy_leagues row (dynasty league hosting its rookie draft).
• Pick trading is supported pre-draft and in-draft. Every trade writes a row to rookie_pick_trades (audit). rookie_draft_order.current_slot is the live source of truth for who picks where.

7. Success criteria

8. Rollback plan

If seed_rookies_2026.py misreads the draft board (wrong pfr→gsis map, missing UDFAs) we can safely re-run - the upsert is idempotent. If a production rookie draft goes sideways mid-event, toggle rookie_drafts.status = 'paused' via SQL and the commissioner flag to resume or cancel. Never hard-delete rookie_draft_picks rows (audit trail for pick trading).