CLV calculator
Enter the price you bet and the line where the market closed. We compute implied probability delta, vig-stripped CLV, and the no-vig closing line for reference. Positive CLV is the strongest long-run profit predictor we have.
Implied: 52.38%
No-vig implied: 50.13%
No-vig implied: 50.13%
Implied: 51.22%
No-vig: 49.01% (+104)
No-vig: 49.01% (+104)
Vig-stripped CLV
-1.11%
Negative CLV
The market moved against your bet after you placed it. Short term, this can still win. Long term, this loses.
Raw CLV (with vig): -1.16%
What CLV tells you (and what it does not)
CLV is the best single-number estimate of whether your betting process has an edge. Over 500+ bets it converges to something close to your long-run ROI minus the vig you pay. Under 50 bets, variance dominates and CLV is still noisy.
Use the no-vig version as your primary number. The raw version with vig embedded is noisy at the extremes. We cross-reference against sharp books (Pinnacle, Circa, Bookmaker) when computing your tracked record; see our CLV essay below.
Read the full CLV essay ยท Glossary
CLV is the best single-number estimate of whether your betting process has an edge. Over 500+ bets it converges to something close to your long-run ROI minus the vig you pay. Under 50 bets, variance dominates and CLV is still noisy.
Use the no-vig version as your primary number. The raw version with vig embedded is noisy at the extremes. We cross-reference against sharp books (Pinnacle, Circa, Bookmaker) when computing your tracked record; see our CLV essay below.
Read the full CLV essay ยท Glossary