/ GLOSSARY

Sports betting glossary

259 terms defined in plain English. Same data the NuroPicks Discord bot uses for the /glossary command. If you have a term we should add, email hello@nuropicks.com.

#

"Lock": A supposed guaranteed winner. There are no locks. Anyone selling "locks" is selling a fantasy. Responsible handicappers never use the word.
1H (First Half): A bet on just the first half of a game. Popular in NFL/CBB. Often better liquidity than quarter bets.
2H (Second Half): A bet on just the second half of a game. Lines reset at halftime based on 1H score.

A

Action: Slang for betting volume, or the act of having a bet down. "I got action on the Lakers" = I bet on the Lakers.
Alt Line (Alternate): Non-standard spread/total/prop at different odds. Buy points for worse odds, sell points for better odds. Useful when you need a specific number.
American Odds: US format. -110 = risk $110 to win $100. +150 = risk $100 to win $150. Negative = favorite, positive = underdog.
Anytime TD Scorer: NFL prop: will player score any TD. More hittable than first TD. Popular SGP leg.
Arbitrage (Arb): Betting both sides across different sportsbooks to guarantee profit regardless of outcome. Tiny margins (0.5-3%) but risk-free.
Asian Handicap: Soccer spread with no-draw outcomes. Half and quarter lines split stake between 2 lines. Used on tight favorites.
Asian Line: Half-point handicap that eliminates the push. +0.25 = half stake at +0, half at +0.5. Popular on soccer.
Assists Prop: NBA prop: over/under assists for a player. Point guards dominate this market. Watch blowout risk (pulls starters).
ATS (Against The Spread): A bet on whether a team will cover the point spread. If Chiefs are -3.5, they must win by 4+ to cover ATS.
Audit Trail: The full chain of what the model saw, what it predicted, what stake it recommended, and what graded at settle. Every NuroPicks pick has one. Visible on /record/[id] detail pages: model inputs, SHAP top drivers, opening line, closing line (CLV captured two minutes pre-game), graded result, Kelly-sized stake. Why it matters: capper track records mean nothing without a grading trail that a third party can verify.

B

Backdoor Cover: A late garbage-time score that covers the spread when the game was otherwise decided. Painful if you were on the other side.
Bad Beat: Losing a bet that looked won. Missed free throw to cover, last-second TD with game decided, etc. Part of the variance.
Bankroll: Your total betting budget. Separate from personal finances. Treat it like a business account. If it hits zero, stop and reassess.
bet365: UK-origin global book, limited US rollout. Best early pricing on EPL, Champions League. Soft on golf props.
Betfair (Exchange): Peer-to-peer betting exchange. Bet for or against outcomes. Lay betting = betting against. Popular in UK/EU.
BetMGM: Third major US sportsbook. Tied to MGM casino rewards. Good parlay boosts. Slow to pay winners some markets.
Bonus Wager Requirement: Play-through on free bets: often 1x but can be 3x or more. Books that require 5x+ are traps. Always read T&C before opt-in.
Both Halves to Score: Each team scores at least 1 goal in each half. Uncommon prop. Decent value on high-total matches with poor defenses.
Bovada / offshore: Non-US-licensed offshore book. Accepts crypto. No legal protection. Not recommended.
BPA (Best Player Available): Draft philosophy: take the highest-graded player left on your board regardless of positional need. Opposite of need-based drafting. Teams that publicly profess BPA sometimes act otherwise in Round 1, which creates mispricing on first-player-at-position props. Why it matters: when BPA and consensus positional value diverge (example: BPA is a tackle but the board is thin at corner), edge-finders flip to the non-consensus side because war-room reality beats media talking points.
BTTS (Both Teams To Score): Soccer prop: both teams score at least one goal. Yes/No outcomes. Popular Over/Under alternative.
Buying Points: Moving the spread in your favor at worse odds. Buying a half point across 3 in NFL costs -120 instead of -110. Usually -EV.

C

Caesars Sportsbook: Fourth major US book. Tied to Caesars Rewards. Best odds on most NFL spreads in select markets.
Capper (Handicapper): Someone who analyzes and picks bets. Verified cappers have third-party-tracked records with CLV data.
Cards Prop: Soccer prop: yellow/red cards. Referee identity matters more than teams. Ref-tight refs = over, lenient = under.
Cash Out: Book feature to settle a live bet early. Almost always -EV versus letting it ride. Books build in 3-7% extra juice.
CB5 Consensus: The fifth cornerback off the board in a given Draft class, measured across PFF, Daniel Jeremiah, Matt Miller, Dane Brugler, and ESPN mock boards. Consensus CB5 is a live market on BetMGM and DraftKings during Draft night. Edge sits in the late first to early second when teams chase press-man corners earlier than the consensus projects.
CFTC Designated Contract Market (DCM): A federally regulated derivatives exchange supervised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. A DCM designation lets a US platform legally list event contracts (yes/no binary payouts) that function economically like bets. Kalshi is the first and best-known sports-exposed DCM. DCM status is what lets a prediction market operate in the US without needing a state-by-state sports-betting license.
Chalk: The favorite. "Betting the chalk" means taking the favored team. Heavy chalk = big favorite (-300 or more).
Chalky (Adjective): A slate or parlay full of favorites. "All chalk" means every leg is a favorite. Lower variance, lower payout.
Championship Futures: Season-long bets on who wins the title. Sharp money attacks opening week. Field bets (any non-favorite) often +EV in wide-open races.
Circa Sports: Vegas sharp book. Highest limits in Nevada, no-ban policy. $1M NFL contest. Sharps welcome.
Clean Sheet (Soccer): Team keeps opposition from scoring. Defender + goalkeeper prop. EPL strong defenses at home = value.
Closing Line: Final odds at game start. The "true" price because all sharp money has weighed in. Beating the close = edge.
CLV (Closing Line Value): The difference between your bet odds and the final closing odds. Consistently beating the close = you have real edge. The #1 metric for long-term profitability.
Combine Score: Shorthand for a prospect's performance across the six NFL Scouting Combine events (40-yard, 10-split, vertical, broad jump, 3-cone, 20-shuttle). Books do not price the Combine directly; they price the market's reaction to it. RAS is the cleaner signal because it weights each event by positional relevance.
Compensatory Pick: An extra draft selection awarded by the NFL (Rounds 3 through 7) to teams that lost more or better-valued free agents than they signed the prior offseason. Compensation formula weights salary, playing time, and postseason honors. Since 2017, compensatory picks can be traded. Why it matters: compensatory-pick-count O/Us (team season-totals usually 1.5 to 4.5) reward research, because the formula leaks weeks before the official announcement via league-source spreadsheets like OverTheCap.
Conditional Pick: A trade-acquired draft selection whose round or year flips based on future events: games played, snap count, playoff seed, Pro Bowl selection. Written into the trade memo as "2027 fifth-round pick that becomes a fourth if the player plays 60 percent of snaps." Why it matters: conditional-pick escalator props (will-it-elevate O/U, earliest-qualifying-week) are usually thin-market with stale books, so a reader who tracks snap counts weekly has a real edge over the implied line.
Confidence Interval: 95% CI on ROI after 500 bets: typically +/-5%. So reported ROI is rough. Use 1000+ bets before trusting claims.
Corners Prop: Soccer prop: total corner kicks. Driven by possession % and attacking style. Weak market = edge available.
Corners Unders: Soccer total corners bet. Teams that defend deep + counterattack = unders. Possession-dominant = overs.
Correct Score: Exact final score bet (soccer-heavy). Long odds (+500 to +2500). Low EV unless paired with strong model.
Correct Score (Soccer): Exact final score prediction. Long odds (+500 to +2500). Low hit rate. Popular derby/rivalry bet.
Correlation (SGP): When one leg hitting changes probability of another. SGP books price this in (compound vig), but missed correlations = EV.
Correlation Penalty: The hidden cost of parlaying two legs whose outcomes are linked. If Leg A hitting makes Leg B more likely, the book has to price the combined odds lower than the naive product, or you have a free edge. Books that do not adjust (older SGP pricing, some cross-market props) let you exploit it; books that do adjust erase the edge. Why it matters: stacking a first-QB Over with a QB1 team-prop tail inside the same book is usually mispriced against you, not for you, once the book correlation engine kicks in.
Cover: When a team beats the spread. Favorite covers by winning by more than the spread. Underdog covers by losing by less or winning outright.
Cross-Sport Parlay: Parlay legs from different sports (NBA + NHL + MLB). Standard parlay vig, no correlation adjustment.

D

Daily Double: Horse bet: pick winner of 2 consecutive races. Popular track bet at nearly every US venue.
Day 2 Pick: A Round 2 or 3 selection, typically picks 33 to 100. Day 2 carries the highest per-pick expected value for teams because the talent curve is flatter than Round 1 but the rookie-contract savings are still large. Books offer team-specific Day-2-trade-up and first-player-drafted-by-team props. Day 2 opens Friday night, 7pm ET, with a 7-minute clock (vs Round 1 10-minute).
Dead Heat Rule: Golf/horse payout rule when multiple selections tie for a position. Payout is divided. Can turn +EV into -EV for placed bets.
Decimal Odds: European format. 2.00 = even money. 1.91 = -110 American. Multiply stake by decimal to get total payout including stake.
Devigger: A tool (or person) that strips the book vig from a two-sided market to recover the implied probability. A line of -115/-115 implies a 52.4% coin, not 50%, once you devig. NuroPicks auto-devigs every line before computing edge. Why it matters: edge claims that do not devig first are lying about their own numbers. Use the /tools/no-vig calculator for manual devigging.
Devigging: Removing the sportsbook commission from odds to calculate true probability. Essential skill for +EV and arb hunting.
DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports): Lineup-building contests (DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog). Shares data and models with sports betting. Different legal framework per state.
DNB (Draw No Bet): Soccer market. Bet on Team A or Team B to win; if match draws, stake refunded. Lower payout vs moneyline.
Dog (Underdog): The team expected to lose. Getting + odds. "Live dog" = underdog that actually has a shot.
Double Chance: Soccer market covering 2 of 3 outcomes (e.g. Team A or draw). Shorter odds, higher hit rate.
Draft Futures: Team-level futures markets that settle on Draft outcomes: over/under total first-round picks, next-season win total set on Draft night (repriced from the pre-Draft number within two hours), and prop ladders like rookie-of-the-year for drafted players. Distinct from traditional futures because the settle-date is Draft day itself, not the full season. Books post them the week of Draft and usually pull them within the window the first round closes.
Draft Night 1 (Round 1): Thursday of NFL Draft week. 32 picks, 10-minute clock per pick, ~3.5-hour broadcast. Books offer in-event live props on each upcoming pick (BetMGM, DraftKings most active). Highest-volume market is QB-related props in the top-10 window.
Draft Position O/U: Books post a draft slot number for individual prospects. Bet over (drafted later) or under (drafted earlier). Most actionable when team draft tiers leak through April pro days and 30-visit lists. Late team-needs pivots are the biggest source of variance.
Draft Tier: Position-grouped grade band a team places a prospect into (Tier 1 = top-15 talent, Tier 2 = mid-1st, Tier 3 = late-1st / early-2nd). Books price draft props off public consensus tiers but real team boards diverge. Tier mismatches drive the largest reaches and slides.
DraftKings: Largest US sportsbook by handle. SGP + live + props. Strong promos for new users. Limits winners quickly.

E

Each Way: Horse/golf market: half stake on win, half on place (top 3-5). Half bet pays even if horse places but doesn't win.
Each Way (Golf): Half stake on outright win, half on top-5 or top-10 finish. Dead heat rule applies on ties. Check book T&C.
Early Cash Out: Book offer to settle a live bet mid-game. Almost always shaves 3-7% from fair value. Only cash out if game state changes drastically or you need to hedge liability.
Edge: The percentage advantage you have over the book. 2-3% edge is strong. 5%+ edge is rare and usually short-lived.
Esports Moneyline: Pick winner of match. Available for LoL, CS2, Valorant, Dota, Overwatch. Softer markets than traditional sports.
EV (Expected Value): The mathematical edge of a bet. +EV means profitable long-term. -EV means the house wins long-term. Formula: (Win% x Profit) - (Loss% x Stake).
Exacta: Horse bet: pick 1st AND 2nd in exact order. Box it to cover either order at 2x cost.

F

Fade: Betting against someone or a trend. "Fading the public" means betting the opposite of what most people bet.
Fading the Public: Betting against the popular side. Works best at 80%+ public money on one side with minimal line movement (book happy to take it).
Fanatics Sportsbook: Newest major entry (2024). PointsBetts US acquisition. Heavy promos year 1. Limits opening up.
FanDuel: Second-largest US sportsbook. Spawned from DFS. Known for NFL teasers and early live lines. Aggressive promo deposit match.
First 5 Innings (F5): MLB: bet on the score through 5 innings only. Isolates starting pitchers. Popular sharp market.
First Blood (Esports): Bet on which team gets first kill. MOBAs (LoL, Dota). Short-form prop, high variance.
First Goalscorer (Soccer): Who scores first goal in match. Anytime scorer is more reliable. Penalty takers + set-piece specialists have edge.
First Overall Pick (NFL Draft Prop): Market on which player gets selected #1 in the NFL Draft. -20000 chalk lines (heavy favorite consensus by April) carry no value. The sharp window opens when the consensus falls below -1000 and a real coin-flip exists between two QBs or a QB and a generational non-QB.
First QB Drafted (Prop): Market on which quarterback is the first QB selected. Distinct from First Overall Pick when a non-QB sits at #1. Tighter market than First Overall in late-April once the QB room shakes out (typically 2-4 QBs in the top-15 conversation).
First Round Leader (FRL): Golf: player with lowest Round 1 score. Long odds, high variance. Weather Round 1 is a key input.
First TD Scorer: NFL prop: which player scores first TD. Long odds, lottery ticket. Anytime TD is more consistent value.
First to Score: Which team scores first. Binary prop with no juice smoothing. High variance.
Flat Betting: Wagering the same unit size on every bet regardless of confidence. Simple and survivable. Baseline strategy for most bettors.
Foul Trouble Swing: Live line jumps 2 to 4 points when a star picks up a third foul before halftime or a fourth in the third quarter. Books react fast but not instantly. The edge window is the 30 seconds after the whistle, before the book re-prices. Highest leverage on teams with no bench scorer (Round 1 7-seeds).
Fractional Odds: UK format. 2/1 = win $2 per $1 staked. Common in horse racing. Decimal equivalent: fraction + 1.
Franchise Tag Pick Impact: Tagging a pending free agent blocks that player from counting in the NFL compensatory-pick formula the next offseason until they are either released, traded, or sign a new deal outside the tag. Why it matters: when bettors model team comp-pick totals, the tag-tracker matters more than the base free-agency signing list. One late-March tag can knock a 4.5 team down to 2.5 overnight, which moves the comp-pick O/U line faster than public-book models usually react.
Free Bet: Stake is not returned on win. Only profit pays out. Worth roughly 70% of face value. Use on long shots (+200 or higher).
Futures: Bets on season-long outcomes (champion, MVP, win totals). Money tied up for months. Shop for best price at open.

G

Game 1 Overreaction: Series price often swings 40+ cents after Game 1 even though one game is a small sample. Classic rebuy window on the Game 1 loser before Game 2 tipoff, especially if the loser had less rest or lost by 5 or fewer.
GamStop: UK self-exclusion program. Block yourself from all licensed UK books simultaneously. US equivalent: state voluntary exclusion registries.
Geofencing: Books check your GPS/IP location. Must be inside a legal state at time of bet. Bet placed inside, settled anywhere (usually).
Goals Prop: NHL/Soccer prop: total goals scored. Power play usage + goalie quality + line-mates all in the model.
Grand Slam: Covered 4+ legs of a parlay. MLB: HR with bases loaded. Tennis context: winning all 4 majors in a year.

H

Halftime Live Adjust: Books reset the second-half spread and total at halftime based on 1H pace and score. Playoff 2H totals price 3 to 5 points lower than the implied 2H from pregame because coaches shorten rotations and slow pace. Fade blowout-overreaction 2H lines when the leading team was already up 15 or more.
Handle: Total amount of money wagered. "$100M handle" = $100M in total bets placed.
Handle Share: What % of total state handle each book captures. DK + FD dominate (70-80% combined in most states). Indicator of brand strength.
Hard Rock Bet: Florida-focused book. Fast live betting. Solid UFC and NBA player props. Limited states.
Head-to-Head (Golf): Match-up between 2 golfers: who finishes higher. Lower variance than outrights. Popular market for models.
Hedge: Betting the other side to lock in profit or minimize loss. Common on live parlays where one leg remains. Reduces variance but also EV.
Hedging Math: Formula: hedge stake = (original stake * original odds) / hedge odds. Lock in guaranteed profit on live parlays with one leg remaining.
Hits Allowed Prop: MLB pitcher or batter hits prop. Opposing team BABIP, ballpark factors, defensive alignment all matter.
Hold Percentage: What % of handle the book keeps as profit. NFL season hold = 7-9%. Books with <5% hold are too sharp and limit winners.
Home Court (Round 1): 1-seed and 2-seed host Games 1, 2, 5, 7. Historical Round 1 home-court win rate sits around 61% across the last 20 years. Books bake that into the series price, so edge lives in Game 3 and Game 4 spreads when the lower seed gets a home bounce.
Home Runs Prop: MLB prop: player to hit 1+ HR. Long odds. Ballpark HR factor and pitcher flyball % drive value.
Home/Away Splits: Team performance at home vs on the road. Massive edge in college, meaningful in pro. Altitude (Denver) is its own category.
Hook: A half-point in the spread. "Getting the hook" at +3.5 vs +3 is valuable because 3 is a key number in football.
Horse - Place: Bet horse to finish 1st OR 2nd. Lower payout, higher hit rate than Win.
Horse - Show: Bet horse to finish 1st, 2nd, OR 3rd. Lowest payout, highest hit rate.
Horse - Win: Bet horse to finish 1st. Pays out at morning line odds modified by pool action.

I

If Bet: Chained bets where Bet 2 only activates if Bet 1 wins. Rare format. Useful for small bankrolls wanting parlay-style upside.
Immutable Ledger: A database trigger that prevents historical picks from being edited or deleted after publish. NuroPicks migration 0017 wires picks_immutable_guard to reject UPDATE and DELETE on rows older than five minutes, so the public /record surface is append-only and audit-clean. The five-minute window allows same-tick stake corrections but locks the row before any grading can happen. Sportsbook-grade track records need this.
Implied Probability: Win % implied by the odds. -110 = 52.38%. +150 = 40%. Compare to your model's estimate to find EV.
Injury Report: Pregame list of injured players. Late scratches cause line movement. Subscribe to beat reporters for fastest info.

J

Juice / Vig (Vigorish): The sportsbook's commission. Standard is -110 on both sides (4.55% edge). The vig is how books make money.

K

Kalshi: A CFTC-regulated federal Designated Contract Market that trades yes/no event contracts on politics, economics, and (after the 2025 rulings) sports outcomes. Bettors use Kalshi pricing as a leading indicator because commission is much lower than sportsbook vig and the order book is transparent. Event-contract shares always settle 0 or 100, so an 0.58 quote is a 58 percent implied probability.
Kelly Criterion: Mathematical formula for optimal bet sizing based on edge and odds. f = (bp - q) / b. Most pros use half or quarter Kelly to reduce variance.
Key Number: Common margins of victory. NFL: 3 and 7. NBA: none really. Crossing key numbers with the hook is worth 0.5-1 unit of EV.
KYC (Know Your Customer): Required ID verification to withdraw. Submit ID + address + sometimes source-of-funds. Standard at licensed books. Prevents money laundering.

L

Ladder Parlay: Rolling parlay where each leg stakes prior winnings. Big compounding upside, one miss wipes you. Emotional, rarely +EV.
Limit (Betting Limit): The max a book will take on a bet. Sharp books (Pinnacle, Circa) have high limits. Retail books limit winners fast.
Limited / Restricted: When a sportsbook cuts your max bet size. Usually happens to winners, arb players, or promo abusers. Spread action across books to avoid.
Live Betting (In-Game): Betting on odds that update in real time during the game. Higher variance, more edge opportunities for quick thinkers, but higher vig.
Live Dog: An underdog with a real chance to win, not just cover. Usually +150 to +300. Sharp dogs often go off at shorter prices by tip.
Lookahead Line: Line posted days in advance of a future game. Usually limited liability. Popular for injury-dependent futures bets.

M

Map Betting (Esports): Bet winner of specific map in a series. Knowing map pool + team specialties matters more than overall team strength.
Martingale: Doubling bet after every loss to recover. Math guarantees ruin with a finite bankroll. Do not use. Ever.
Matched Betting: Use free bets + promos at one book while covering the outcome at an exchange (Betfair, Smarkets) to lock in profit. UK staple, limited US presence.
Middle: Betting both sides at different spreads. If you have Team A -3 and Team B +5, you win both if Team A wins by exactly 4. Low risk, rare payoff.
MLB Total (O/U): Combined runs in game. 8.5-9.5 is typical. Wind (out = overs), ballpark, weather, and L/R pitcher splits all factor.
Mock Draft: Public projection of all Round 1 selections. Used as soft consensus by sportsbooks for pricing draft-position O/Us. ESPN, NFL.com, PFF, CBS, RotoWire, Fanspeak, and StickToTheModel each publish mocks; aggregating 5+ mocks usually beats any single mock for prop edges.
Model (Betting Model): Custom algorithm that projects game outcomes. Can be simple spreadsheet or ML model. Edge comes from data + inputs sportsbooks underweight.
Moneyline (ML): A bet on which team wins straight up. No spread involved. -150 means risk $150 to win $100. +150 means risk $100 to win $150.
Monsoon Pick: Slang for a surprise first-round selection so off-board it dominates the night's narrative. Derived from the 2021 Mac Jones to the Patriots at 15 reaction. Books price quiet-round unders on drama markets; one monsoon pick cashes the drama over at most books in one clip.
MVP / Award Futures: Bets on individual player awards (MVP, ROY, DPOY, CY Young). Narrative-driven, often overreactive. Fade mid-season hype for better prices.

N

NCPG: National Council on Problem Gambling. 1-800-GAMBLER, 24/7 confidential hotline + text line. Your first call if gambling is a problem.
No-Sweat Bet: Book promo: lose your first bet, get stake back as bonus bets. Value is 35-50% of advertised amount depending on terms.
No-Vig (No-Juice, Fair Odds): The implied probability of a market with the book's built-in margin stripped out. A -110/-110 two-way market has ~4.5% total vig; remove it and each side is a true 50/50. No-vig pricing is the fair line you compare sportsbook offerings against when hunting for +EV. Also the name of a commission-free US prediction-market exchange that raised a $75M Series B in April 2026.
No-Vig Price (Fair Odds): The true probability-implied price with sportsbook juice stripped out. Use a devigger to find it. Compare your line to no-vig for EV.
Novelty Prop: A market built around an event-flavor question that is not tied to the scoreboard: Round 1 completion time, coin-toss result, national-anthem length, Gatorade color. Books love them because retail bettors click anything fun. Hold on novelty props is usually 8 to 12 percent versus 4 to 5 percent on standard game props. Why it matters: treat them as entertainment units, not model-edge plays. Stake small, skip parlays, and check the implied vig with /tools/no-vig before you click.
NRFI (No Runs First Inning): MLB prop: no run scored in the 1st inning. YRFI = at least one run. Popular daily prop market.

O

Odds Boost: Sportsbook promotion giving enhanced odds on a specific bet. Always +EV if you would have bet it anyway at normal odds.
Opening Line: First posted odds. Often the softest line of the week. Sharps attack openers hard.
Outs Recorded: MLB pitcher prop: total outs. Proxy for innings pitched. Manager trust + pitch count limit = cap.
Over/Under (Total): A bet on the combined score of both teams. Over 48.5 means you think both teams will combine for 49+ points.

P

Pace of Play: NBA/NFL: possessions per game. High pace = more scoring opportunities = higher totals. Check opponent pace too.
Pari-Mutuel: Horse/greyhound betting pool where payouts are determined by final pool totals, not fixed odds. Track takes a % before payout.
Parlay: Combining 2+ bets into one. All legs must hit to win. Higher payout but much lower probability. The vig compounds per leg.
Passing Yards Prop: NFL QB prop: over/under pass yards. Key numbers: 250, 275, 300. Weather/pace inputs drive the line.
Percentage Betting: Staking a fixed % of current bankroll on each bet. Compounds wins faster, recovers from losses slower. Popular with pros.
PGA Tour Futures: Bet player to win tournament (outright), top 5, top 10, top 20, or make the cut. Outright odds = +800 to +20000 typical.
Pick Six: Horse bet: pick winner of 6 consecutive races. Pool rolls over if nobody wins. Jackpot can reach millions.
Pick Value Chart: Internal draft-capital valuation table teams use to price trade-ups. The Jimmy Johnson chart (1991 Cowboys) and the Rich Hill chart (2017 Patriots) are the two public versions. Books lean on the newer Hill chart when pricing trade-up props; its curve is flatter at the top, which raises the implied cost of moving into the top five.
Pinnacle: Asian sharp book. No limits on winners. Lowest vig in the industry (1-2%). Unavailable in US. The gold standard for true prices.
Pivot Point: A number in the line where EV changes meaningfully. Crossing from +3 to +2.5 is a pivot in the NFL.
Player Props: Bets on individual player stat lines (points, yards, strikeouts). Weaker markets than game lines = more beatable.
Playoff Garbage Time: Less frequent than regular season because playoff rotations stay tight until late. Backdoor covers still happen when the leading team pulls starters up 15 or more with 3 minutes left. Live total unders carry edge once both benches are in; live spreads on the trailing team do not (bench lineups do not scale the margin).
Playoff Whistle: Refs swallow marginal fouls deeper into the playoffs. Round 1 free-throw rate drops 6 to 9 percent vs regular season league-wide. Live unders on team total points and free-throw O/Us carry edge in Games 3 to 7, especially with star-driven teams that farm fouls.
Point Spread: The expected margin of victory. Favorites give points (-3.5), underdogs get points (+3.5). You bet whether the favorite wins by more than the spread.
Points Prop: NBA/NHL prop: over/under points (scoring points in NBA, total points in NHL). Most liquid prop market.
Polymarket: An offshore USDC-denominated prediction market that trades yes/no event contracts on politics, sports, and breaking news. Polymarket is not CFTC-registered and is geo-restricted for US users, but its prices are widely cited because the market attracts concentrated sharp capital and often leads sportsbook lines on slow-moving event props (Draft slot, election outcomes, court rulings).
Positional Run (NFL Draft): When 3+ teams reach for the same position in a tight window (e.g. 4 OTs in picks 5-12). Triggers cascading drops on the next-best player at that position. Useful for bet-on-second-CB-off-the-board props once the first CB is gone.
Power Rating: Numeric strength grade for each team. Used to project lines. Public power ratings: Sagarin, Massey, FPI.
Prediction Market: A peer-to-peer exchange where users trade event-contract shares that settle at 100 cents on Yes or 0 cents on No. Because traders set the price rather than a house, the market implied probability tends to track sharp consensus faster than traditional sportsbook lines on low-volume event props. Kalshi and Polymarket are the two US-facing names most bettors will hit first.
Pregame: Bets placed before the opening tip/kickoff/first pitch. Most volume happens pregame. Sharper markets at close.
PrizePicks: Pick-em DFS operator. Pick 2-6 player props over/under, higher payout per correct pick. Popular entry point for beginners.
Promo / Promotion: Any book offer that adds value. Deposit match, odds boosts, no-sweat bets, profit boosts. Promo abuse is a legitimate edge for new users.
Promo Abuse (Bonus Hunting): Legitimate +EV strategy: systematically claim every sportsbook bonus, deposit match, and risk-free bet. Expected hourly: $50-$200 for first 3 months.
Prop Bet: A bet on a specific player/game stat, not the final outcome. Example: "Mahomes Over 285.5 passing yards." Player props are a growing market.
ProphetX: A US peer-to-peer sports-betting exchange where users post and take wagers against each other instead of a house. The exchange takes a commission on winnings (typically 1 to 3 percent) rather than baking vig into the line, which means sharp traders can get tighter prices than at a traditional sportsbook. Pricing here + at Sporttrade + at Kalshi is the core of the cross-exchange arbitrage thesis.
Public Bettors (The Public): Casual bettors. Typically bet favorites, overs, and popular teams. Fading the public is profitable in select spots, not always.
Puck Line (NHL): NHL spread equivalent: -1.5 or +1.5 goals. Favorite must win by 2+. Underdog wins or loses by 1. Popular alt to ML.
Push: When the result lands exactly on the spread/total. Your bet is returned (refunded). Nobody wins or loses.

Q

QB Slide: A quarterback prospect falling below their consensus mock range on Draft night. The most traded slide market is the first-QB-off-the-board prop: when the public QB1 drops out of the top-5, books reprice downstream team-QB props in seconds. A sliding QB is a common trade-up catalyst; the Jets-Jaguars QB1 chase in 2023 is the canonical example. Edge sits in the gap between the slide starting and the book rewriting adjacent team-needs-QB props.
Quarter Bet: Bet on a single quarter spread/total. Higher variance. Line-makers spend less effort on quarters = soft market.

R

Reach (NFL Draft): Player taken 1+ rounds earlier than consensus board. Reaches on need (LT, CB1, QB) are predictable from team draft tiers; reaches on traits are not. Reach picks blow up positional-run props for the rest of the round.
Rebounds Prop: NBA prop: over/under rebounds. Positional data (C vs G) matters. Pace and opponent defensive rebound rate are key.
Reduced Juice: Sportsbooks offering -105 instead of -110 on standard lines. Cuts vig from 4.55% to 2.38%. Default +EV book choice for volume bettors.
Referee Impact: NBA/Soccer: specific refs have different styles (loose vs tight). Check ref historicals for O/U totals and foul props.
Regression to the Mean: Hot streaks and cold streaks both regress over time. 80% weeks don't continue. Fade extreme hot streaks in player props.
Regular Season Markets: All stats props scoped to regular season only (unless stated). Postseason = separate market, different pricing.
Regulated (US): State-licensed sportsbook. Your funds are segregated + protected. Complaints go to state gaming commissions. Pays tax correctly.
Relative Athletic Score (RAS): Zero to ten composite score of a prospect's Combine + Pro Day testing relative to historical positional peers. Kent Lee Platte maintains the public database. Books quietly price the top-end (RAS 9.5+) into landing-spot props, especially first-round CBs and EDGE. A high-RAS prospect sliding in-Draft when tape grades contradict testing is a common hedge target.
Rest Advantage: Days off before game. NBA back-to-backs drop win% by 3-5 points. NFL short week (Thursday) favors home team by ~1 point.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): Line moves opposite to public betting %. Classic sharp indicator. If 75% on favorite but line drops, sharps are on the dog.
Risk-Free Bet (Second-Chance): If your first bet loses, book refunds up to $X in free bets/site credit. Value is ~30-50% of advertised amount. Always +EV if bet sized right.
ROI (Return on Investment): Profit divided by total wagered. A 5% ROI over 1000+ bets is elite. Anything over 2% long-term beats most pros.
ROI Variance: Even good bettors have losing months. 52%-55% win rate doesnt mean winning every week. Drawdowns of 10-15 units are normal.
Rolling Parlay: Same as ladder. Stake initial amount, roll winnings into next leg until you cash or bust.
Round Robin: Auto-build every possible 2-team, 3-team, etc parlay from your selections. Cushions variance but doesn't beat vig.
Run Line (MLB): MLB spread equivalent: -1.5 or +1.5 runs. Favorite must win by 2+. Tight games = run line hits the dog.
Rushing Yards Prop: NFL RB prop: over/under rush yards. Injury to teammates drives volume upward. Check workload reports.

S

Sack Prop: NFL defensive prop: will player X record a sack. Extremely variance-heavy, rarely +EV.
Same Game: Parlay across multiple markets from ONE game (SGP). Books compound vig. Correlations (QB passing yards + WR receiving yards from same team) reduce payout further.
Same-Day Parlay: Multi-game parlay across same day slate. DK/FD push boosts often land on same-day parlays to move volume.
Sample Size: Number of bets needed before results mean something. 500 bets minimum to judge a model. 1000+ for real confidence.
Saves Prop: NHL/Soccer goalie prop: total saves. SOG faced x save % = projection. Good backups in starter's absence = sharp play.
Scamdicapper: A fake capper selling picks with no real edge, doctored results, or private Discord shilling. Verified track records matter.
Scheduled Rest / Load Management: NBA stars sitting healthy for rest. Usually telegraphed 24-48 hours out via ESPN reporters. Sharpen at drop.
Season Win Total: Over/under on total games a team wins in a season. NFL is 17 games max. Injuries, schedule, and coaching changes drive the line.
Selling Points: Moving the spread against you at better odds. Rare but worth considering on teasers/alt lines with strong models.
Series Futures: Umbrella term for any futures tied to a single playoff series: series winner, series length, exact series score (4-0, 4-1, 4-2, 4-3), and correct winner plus games combos. Exact-score buckets pay 4x to 10x the straight series price.
Series Length: Futures market on how many games a best-of-7 series runs (4, 5, 6, or 7). 4-0 and 4-3 carry the longest odds, 4-2 is historically the modal outcome in Round 1. Sharp spot when the 7-seed has a rim-protector that forces Game 6 or Game 7.
Series Price: The moneyline on a team to win an entire playoff series, not a single game. Celtics -450 means risk $450 to win $100 on Boston taking the series. Juice is higher than single-game ML because the book is pricing 4 to 7 games of uncertainty.
Set Betting (Tennis): Exact-score bet on set wins (2-0, 2-1 in WTA; 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 in ATP majors). Highest payout among tennis markets.
SGP (Same Game Parlay): A parlay where all legs are from the same game. Popular but correlated legs compound the vig even more than regular parlays.
SGP Parlay: Same as SGP. Same Game Parlay combining multiple correlated props from one game. Book's juice is compounded heavily.
SGP+ (Same Game Parlay Plus): Cross-game parlay with at least one SGP leg included. Newer market (2023+). More correlated = higher vig built in.
SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations): A model-explainability method that assigns each input feature a credit score for how much it pushed the prediction up or down. NuroPicks uses SHAP on every XGBoost pick to show the top three drivers (edge size, line movement, injury news) and the top one drag (public heavy, weather risk). Why it matters: almost no competitor exposes per-pick reasoning. Surfaces on every /picks embed and on the web /record detail page.
Sharp: A professional/winning bettor who uses data and analysis. Their bets move lines. Opposite of "square" (casual bettor).
Sharp Action: Volume from pros. Moves lines even at low ticket count because of size. Follow sharp books (Pinnacle, Circa) to see it.
Sharp Book: Pro-focused book. Lower vig, higher limits, takes size. Examples: Pinnacle (offshore), Circa (Vegas), some prop boutiques.
Shots on Target (Soccer): Prop: total shots forcing the keeper to save. Better proxy for goal threat than shots total. 3-4 per team average.
Shots Prop: NHL/Soccer prop: total shots taken. More reliable than goals (no goalie variance). Sharps love high-SOG games.
Slate: The full card of games for the day/weekend. "Sunday slate" = all NFL games that day. DFS uses slate terminology too.
Sleeper: Fantasy app that added DFS. Strong in season-long leagues, growing in DFS. Unique drafted pools.
Soft Book: Recreational-focused book. Square lines, square limits, limits winners fast. Best for promos but not volume. Examples: DK, FD, MGM.
SOG (Shots on Goal): NHL prop: total shots on goal in a game. High-variance prop with weak markets = beatable.
Sporttrade: A US-regulated sports-betting exchange that lets users trade in and out of wagers at live 0 to 100 prices, similar to a stock exchange. Cash-out happens naturally because you can sell a position back to the book at the current market price. Sporttrade commission replaces traditional vig, so sharp bettors often find better hold against it than against DK or FanDuel on the same line.
Square: A recreational/casual bettor. Tends to bet favorites, popular teams, and parlays. Opposite of "sharp."
Square Action: Betting volume from recreational players. Books price lines to attract square action on the wrong side.
Standard Deviation: Stat measure of how much ROI swings. Higher stddev = bigger bankroll needed. Parlays have huge stddev; flat ML bets have low stddev.
Starting Lineup: Confirmed starters. Late scratches in NBA (10pm ET) and MLB (first pitch) move lines 1-3 points.
State Launch: Date a new state goes live with online sports betting. First 30 days = promo gold rush. Most states: DK + FD go first.
Steam Move: When a line moves quickly due to heavy sharp action. "Steaming" a line means sharps are pounding it.
Stop Loss: Preset daily/weekly loss limit. When hit, stop betting. Critical for discipline and responsible gambling.
Strength of Schedule (SOS): Quality of opponents faced/remaining. Harder SOS = worse stats. Adjust player props and team totals accordingly.
Strikeouts Prop: MLB pitcher prop: total Ks. Opposing lineup K% + pitcher L/R splits drive it. Weather (wind in) increases Ks.
Sucker Bet: A bet with heavy vig disguised as attractive. Parlays over 3 legs, teasers at certain numbers, most boosts with fine print.
Superfecta: Horse bet: pick 1st-4th in exact order. High variance, high payout. Box = 24x cost.

T

Team Position of First Pick (Prop): Bet on the position group (QB / OL / DL / Skill / Defensive Back) of a specific team's first selection. Cleanest when a team has clear top-2 needs and 1-2 likely BPA scenarios. Often correlated with positional-run timing in that range.
Team Total: Over/under points scored by ONE team (not both). Useful when you like one side but not the other in a total.
Teaser: A parlay where you move the spread in your favor on each leg (usually 6-7 points in NFL). Lower payout but higher win probability.
Teaser Ties: NFL 6-point teaser: 3 to 9 crosses 3 and 7, key numbers. Wong teasers (favorites -7.5 to -8.5, dogs +1.5 to +2.5) historically +EV at specific books.
Threes Made Prop: NBA prop: 3-pointers made by a player. High variance. Volume shooters (Curry, Dame) = safer unders on bad nights.
Thunder / Props Cash: Secondary DFS-pickem operators. Weaker markets, beatable in some cases but watch for payout terms.
Tilt: Emotional decision-making after a loss. Chasing, doubling up, betting teams you don't usually bet. The #1 killer of bankrolls.
To Qualify (Soccer Cup): Two-legged tie: which team advances? Includes away-goal rule + extra time + penalties. Priced differently than 90-min ML.
Top-10 Lock: A Draft prospect whose consensus mock position is inside the top-10 across every public board (PFF, Jeremiah, Brugler, ESPN, Miller). Books price Top-10 Lock props around -400 or tighter; the edge is not the favorite side but the rare fade when late-process leaks (medical re-check, interview flag, character report) move the market without moving the consensus mocks. Wait for book movement before the mocks catch up.
Total Games (Tennis): Over/under total games played in the match. Heavy serve players + grass = overs. Clay + baseliners = unders.
Trade Count Over / Under: An event prop on how many trades a draft event will produce. BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel post a Round 1 trade O/U each year (2024 = 2.5, 2025 = 3.5). Correlates with completion-time props because each trade adds roughly four to six real minutes to the broadcast. Why it matters: if you already have a read on trade volume, the trade-count O/U and the R1 completion-time O/U are the same bet in different clothes. Do not double up at full stake.
Trade Down (NFL Draft): Team moves back from their slot to accumulate picks. Books rarely price specific trade-down team props but offer total Round 1 trade count O/U (typically 5.5 to 7.5). Trade-down activity by elite GMs (Belichick / Roseman / Veach historically) shifts every prop at picks 10-25.
Trade Up (NFL Draft): Team moves up by sending future picks (often a 1st or two 2nds) to a team behind them. Markets exist on will-there-be-a-Round-1-trade-up (Yes is the historical norm, 90%+ of recent drafts) and on which teams will trade. Trade activity skews positional-run timing earlier.
Trifecta: Horse bet: pick 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in exact order. Box it for all 6 orderings at 6x cost.

U

UDFA (Undrafted Free Agent): A prospect who finishes all seven rounds without being drafted, then signs a post-draft free-agent deal. Most teams sign 8 to 15 UDFAs within 90 minutes of Day 3 closing. Betting angle: per-team UDFA-count O/U, highest-signing-bonus UDFA props, first-UDFA-to-make-53 futures. Why it matters: when a projected Round 5 name slides to UDFA, his signing destination is a tradable signal about which teams have internal grades against the draft consensus.
Underdog Fantasy: DFS operator with Pick-em and Best Ball formats. Known for early-market props (often softer than traditional books).
Unit: A standardized bet size. Usually 1-5% of your bankroll. $1000 bankroll = $10-50 per unit. NEVER chase by increasing unit size.
Unit Size: The dollar amount of 1 unit. Keep it between 1-3% of bankroll for flat betting. Adjust using Kelly for high-edge plays.
Unregulated / Offshore: Non-licensed books (Bovada, BetOnline, MyBookie). No legal recourse if they dont pay. Crypto deposits common. Higher risk.

V

Value Pick (NFL Draft): Player who slides 1+ rounds below consensus board. Often drives same-team-multiple-position-of-need bets in the next round. Sharp money tracks these on the late-Day-1 / early-Day-2 fade.
Variance: How results deviate from expected. High variance = big swings. Proper bankroll management survives variance; sloppy management dies.
Vertical Drop: A prospect sliding below their consensus mock range on Draft night. Teams that trade up for a sliding Tier 1 prospect are a public bet favorite; the exotic market is on the total round of the drop. Slides correlate with character flags, injury re-checks, or a bad Combine interview leaking post-process.
VPN Detection: Books ban accounts caught using VPN to fake location. Real bans, seized funds, permanent. Do not VPN.

W

Weather Impact: Outdoor NFL/MLB games. Wind 15+ mph = unders. Rain = unders + rushing overs. Hot dome openers = unders early season.
Weekly Snapshot: An hourly cron that freezes a point-in-time copy of the aggregate /record stats (win rate, units, CLV, ROI) so a user can retrieve what our record looked like at 10 AM last Tuesday without re-running the grader. Powers historical comparisons on the web dashboard and in the /record RSS feed. Cron-idempotent: re-running the same snapshot hour is a no-op.
Whale: A very high-volume bettor. Casinos love whales because variance on their play smooths. Distinct from sharps (whales can be -EV).
Wiseguy: Slang for a sharp/pro bettor. Used by sportsbooks internally. Wiseguy account = account flagged for high limits.
Workout Warrior: A prospect whose Combine + Pro Day testing outpaces their college tape. RAS 9.0+ with mid-round film grades is the telltale. Workout warriors slide later than mocks project because team boards weight tape heavier than athletic testing; fade the over on their Draft-night position range.