Question 1

Is this record live from the database?

Accepted Answer

Yes. Every number on this page is computed from the picks table in Neon at request time with a 60-second cache. No hardcoded figures. Rows are locked at post time via a Postgres trigger, so we cannot retroactively edit or delete a pick.

Question 2

What is the difference between ROI, yield, and hit rate?

Accepted Answer

Hit rate is wins divided by (wins + losses). It ignores odds. ROI is net units won divided by units risked. It treats a dollar risked at -200 the same as a dollar risked at +200 in terms of denominator. Yield is net units won divided by total settled picks, a flat-staking view. A 60% hit rate on -200 favorites is losing money; a 53% hit rate at +100 is profitable. Never judge a handicapper on hit rate alone.

Question 3

Why is my sample size so important?

Accepted Answer

Because at 100 picks, you cannot statistically distinguish a true 54% edge from pure luck. You need roughly 1,500 to 2,000 settled picks before a 54% true win rate becomes detectable at p<0.05. The sample note on each window tells you where this record sits on that curve.

Question 4

What is CLV and why do you show it?

Accepted Answer

Closing Line Value. The difference between the odds you posted and the final market consensus at tip-off. Positive CLV over a big sample is the single most respected metric among professional bettors because it is much less noisy than short-term hit rate. We compute it in decimal odds: (posted / closing) - 1, averaged across picks with a closing snapshot.

Question 5

Can picks be edited after the fact?

Accepted Answer

No. Every picks row is written with locked_at set to NOW() on insert. A database trigger rejects UPDATE or DELETE of locked columns. Only grading fields (result, graded_at, closing_odds) can change, and those are append-only logs, not edits.

Question 6

Is this financial advice?

Accepted Answer

No. NuroPicks is entertainment and education. Past ROI or CLV does not predict future results. 21+ only. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit the responsible gambling resources page.

Every pick posted. Every pick tracked.