Non-conference mismatch
Power 5 vs Group of 5 non-conference games have wider spreads than close the line. Early-week we flag these.
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Non-conference games + mid-tier bowls are where retail edge lives in NCAAF. Power 5 marquee matchups are sharp early.
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Team totals > game totals
Individual team totals have wider holds but more edge - pace mismatches stay underpriced through kickoff.
Passing-yard overs
Uptempo offenses vs zone-heavy defenses historically lean over on passing yards. Hit-rate varies by season and sample; we cite specific rates only when public data backs them.
Bowl-game motivation fade
Unmotivated teams (coaching change, opt-outs) historically underperform the spread. Motivation filter is key before kickoff.
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