PUCK LINEThe -1.5 favorite trap
Retail loves the -1.5 puck line on chalk but 60% of NHL games finish within 1 goal. we track empty-net frequency, goalie-pull context, and late-game score effects to pick spots where -1.5 actually has +EV instead of hidden variance.
TOTALGoalie + pace adjusted O/U
Playoff totals get pinched early but still mispriced around backup goalies, rest-day splits, and third-line matchups. Model pulls from expected goals (xG), high-danger chance rate, and penalty-kill efficiency instead of raw season averages.
PLAYER PROPSSOG + saves + points
Shots on goal O/U is the highest-volume playoff prop. we flag usage-rate shifts between regular season and playoffs when a coach tightens the rotation. Saves props move hard with line changes; alt-lines on goalie workload beat the main-line math.
SERIES PRICEBest-of-7 futures with live updates
Series prices swing hardest after Game 1 and Game 3. Public overreacts to single-game results; we re-read each series using Elo plus goaltender health flags. Sharp middle windows open and close inside 24 hours of a result.